Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.877905 2.244389 2.655783 3.150674 3.728669 4.381150 5.172263
2026-02-08 1.355966 1.821800 2.401215 3.170213 4.158792 5.381139 7.000483
2026-02-15 1.038464 1.537924 2.213925 3.185505 4.533790 6.324343 8.864746
2026-02-22 0.812428 1.309841 2.034070 3.148151 4.796964 7.120491 10.608044
2026-03-01 0.623527 1.087166 1.808817 2.989230 4.839546 7.587330 11.919972
2026-03-08 0.508747 0.951811 1.683801 2.947899 5.031527 8.269486 13.595765
2026-03-15 0.424807 0.848535 1.588145 2.930315 5.245582 8.993084 15.394418
2026-03-22 0.386287 0.817139 1.606047 3.100266 5.780152 10.270569 18.189048
2026-03-29 0.342873 0.767143 1.580979 3.187359 6.177803 11.356213 20.766977
2026-04-05 0.311414 0.734231 1.581068 3.317397 6.661926 12.629454 23.773769
2026-04-12 0.270681 0.673463 1.516526 3.313081 6.894537 13.479135 26.113994
2026-04-19 0.227404 0.597944 1.409236 3.207038 6.917134 13.945917 27.802624
2026-04-26 0.189442 0.527428 1.302474 3.089859 6.910011 14.369203 29.478139
2026-05-03 0.165510 0.485825 1.252264 3.085369 7.129771 15.244867 32.086875
2026-05-10 0.145803 0.450599 1.210553 3.092938 7.374164 16.189752 34.911431
2026-05-17 0.126352 0.411495 1.152674 3.054328 7.512622 16.932059 37.396866
2026-05-24 0.104164 0.359110 1.052259 2.899090 7.371125 17.080779 38.689216
2026-05-31 0.090478 0.328440 1.002121 2.858698 7.485388 17.775970 41.167031
2026-06-07 0.079608 0.303773 0.963575 2.841539 7.651145 18.595433 43.973676
2026-06-14 0.076449 0.303599 0.993206 3.006762 8.275755 20.481803 49.230676
2026-06-21 0.070804 0.293597 0.992908 3.091444 8.710301 21.976754 53.743901
2026-06-28 0.066876 0.288737 1.007051 3.217901 9.263993 23.790580 59.105400
2026-07-05 0.059763 0.270292 0.976516 3.213703 9.480140 24.835715 62.806714